Paris Agreement and Sky scenario

Meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement

Panoramic view of Paris with the Eiffel Tower

A new energy system is emerging

The Paris Agreement has sent a signal around the world: climate change is a serious issue that governments are determined to address

Solar panels amongst green trees with buildings in the background

The Paris Agreement calls for an early peak in emissions

Net-zero emissions must be achieved during the second half of this century

The paris agreement seeks to peak emissions in the short term and reach a balance between anthropogenic sources and sinks during the second half of the century The paris agreement seeks to peak emissions in the short term and reach a balance between anthropogenic sources and sinks during the second half of the century

Source: Shell Schematic

Achieving net-zero emissions requires change at every level of the energy system

Sky relies on a complex combination of mutually reinforcing drivers

Continuously strong efficiency gains are needed to moderate the pace of global energy demand growth

Rising incomes in developing regions drive global energy demand. This is moderated by significant energy efficiency improvements

Source: Shell analysis, Sky scenario

Deep electrification transforms global final energy consumption in Sky

Nevertheless, the need for liquid and gaseous fuels in hard-to-electrify sectors remains significant, with biofuels and hydrogen emerging as major fuels to satisfy growth in energy services demand

Source: Shell analysis, Sky scenario
*LHCF : Liquid hydrocarbon fuel

Global primary energy undergoes major shifts in Sky

Renewables dominate by mid-century, as wind and solar deployment ramps up

Source: Shell analysis, Sky scenario

Fossil fuel demand peaks in the 2030s, but remains in sectors where substitution is difficult

Global coal demand declines in the mid-2020s. Oil demand peaks in 2025, but remains critical for air transport and non-energy use. Natural gas serves as a transition fuel into the 2030s prior to a large-scale shift to non-fossil power generation.

Source: Shell analysis, Sky scenario

A radically different system emerges in Sky, providing more and cleaner energy

Renewables’ share of global energy grows significantly

The size of the pie chart indicates the growth of the energy system

Doughnut chart to show the different percentage of enery uses from today compared to 2070 Doughnut chart to show the different percentage of enery uses from today compared to 2070

With carbon capture and storage
Fossil

  • Oil
  • Natural gas
  • Coal
  • Bioenergy
  • Nuclear
  • Solar
  • Wind
  • Other

Source: Shell analysis

Sky achieves net-zero emissions by 2070

The scale of global change in Sky is unprecedented

Explore the icons below to learn more

Interactive graph to show how Sky acheives net-zero emissions by 2070 Explore the Sky signposts in more detail

Global liquid fuel demand for passenger vehicles goes into decline

Paris Agreement ratified

Governments reach an understanding on the appropriate cost of emissions

Global electricity consumption reaches 35,000 TWh/year, having risen close to 50% over the past decade

Accelerated investment in low-carbon energy quadruples solar PV and wind capacity to 5,000 GW total

Global cumulative storage of CO2 passes the one Gt milestone

First intercontinental hydrogen flight

India leads the world in solar PV

India and China each reach one Gt CO2 per year stored

Solar PV passes oil as the largest energy source

Net deforestation comes to an end

Majority of trucks powered by electricity or hydrogen

850,000 10MW turbines

Biofuels overtake oil as the biggest component of liquid fuels

CO2 storage reaches 12 Gt per year

Global energy systems at 1,000 EJ per year (double 2010)

Action plans developed in C40 cities targeting net-zero emssions by 2050

Hydrogen at 10% of final energy

After celebrating 30 years at near-zero emissions, cities are in sight of achieving their circular economy goals globally

First few countries to reach net-zero emissions

All regions meet net-zero emissions

Last countries to reach net-zero emissions

Interactive graph to show how Sky acheives net-zero emissions by 2070
  • Town icon2010 - 2020

    Action plans developed in C40 cities targeting net-zero emssions by 2050

  • Handshake icon2012

    Paris Agreement ratified

  • Car icon2012

    Global liquid fuel demand for passenger vehicles goes into decline

  • Money icon2030

    Governments reach an understanding on the appropriate cost of emissions

  • Global icon2031

    Global electricity consumption reaches 35,000 TWh/year, having risen close to 50% over the past decade

  • Solar panel and wind icon2031

    Accelerated investment in low-carbon energy quadruples solar PV and wind capacity to 5,000 GW total

  • Info icon2041

    First few countries to reach net-zero emissions

  • Plane icon2042

    First intercontinental hydrogen flight

  • Solar panel icon2044

    India leads the world in solar PV

  • CO2 icon2053

    India and China each reach one Gt CO2 per year stored

  • Solar panel icon2053

    Solar PV passes oil as the largest energy source

  • Trees icon2063

    Net deforestation comes to an end

  • Lorry icon2065

    Majority of trucks powered by electricity or hydrogen

  • Wind icon2070

    850,000 10MW turbines

  • Info icon2071

    All reigons meet net-zero emissions

  • Biomass icon2075

    Biofuels overtake oil as the biggest component of liquid fuels

  • CO2 icon2080

    CO2 storage reaches 12 Gt per year

  • Global icon2085

    Global energy systems at 1,000 EJ per year (double 2010)

  • Info icon2088

    Last countries to reach net-zero emissions

  • Gas icon2097

    Hydrogen at 10% of final energy

  • Buildings icon2090 - 2100

    After celebrating 30 years at near-zero emissions, cities are in sight of achieving their circular economy goals globally

Explore the Sky signposts in more detail

Sky shows a pathway to meeting the Paris goal of well below 2°C

A stretched 1.5°C ambition can be achieved by net global reforestation to the size of Brazil

Source: Shell analysis, MIT

Sky requires effective rewiring of the global economy in just 50 years

Significant change is needed across all sectors

Power generation in 2070

We could live in an increasingly electric world, powered mostly by renewables

Industry & Agriculture in 2070

A mix of government policies and consumer demand could help industry and agriculture become more energy efficient

Transport in 2070

Electric cars could become the norm, alongside new fuels for trucks, ships and planes

Buildings & Cities in 2070

Homes and cities of the future could be carbon neutral, and super efficient

Explore the numbers behind the Sky scenario using our data dashboard

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